What is the Outlook for Australian Careers in 2019?
As a new year turns once more, many people thoughts turn to fresh starts, and that includes a new job or even a new career. But what does 2019 hold for job seekers? Where are the growth areas? What industries are declining? Where is the best place to be practising your particular trade?
The job market is fairly robust just now. Australia’s labour market rebounded in August 2018, with monthly jobs growth of 44,000 against a forecast rise of just 18,000. At the same time, the level of labour force participation edged higher, which left the unemployment rate unchanged at a near six-year low of 5.3%.
Kristina Clifton, Commonwealth Bank had this to say, “The details were good with the majority of new jobs full-time. Full-time jobs growth is particularly welcome at the moment as the underemployment is still quite high. Employment growth has been volatile this year, but the trend data shows jobs growth of 29,000 per month. With the working age population increasing by around 20,000 each month, this is enough to keep downward pressure on the unemployment rate.
A rise in the participation rate meant the unemployment rate was unchanged. And a fall in the underemployment rate, which has been stubbornly high for some years now, is perhaps the standout feature.”
What are The Details?
The Department of Employment has released its yearly forecasts and their findings show that over the past five years leading up to the end of 2018, employment growth in the Australian economy has been spread across a number of industries and occupational groups, with a handful of services (particularly Health Care and Social Assistance and Professional Scientific and Technical Services) making particularly substantial contributions to employment growth. Looking ahead based on their employment forecasts and projections published in the December 2014 MidYear Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), total employment is projected to increase by 1,166,400 over the five years to November 2019 to reach 12,776,500. However, the distribution of this growth is projected to vary across industries, occupations, skill levels, states and territories, and regions.
Over the five years to November 2019, employment is projected to increase in 17 of the 19 broad industry groups (see list below), with declines in employment only projected for Mining and Manufacturing. Health Care and Social Assistance are projected to make the largest contribution to employment growth (18.7%), followed by Education and Training (15.6%), Construction (13.0%), and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (14.4%). Together, these four industries are projected to provide more than half of the employment growth to November 2019. By contrast, against the backdrop of an expected peak in capital expenditure and the transition of new mines from a construction phase to a less labour-intensive operational phase, employment in Mining is projected to decline by 40,700 (or 17.8%) over the five years to November 2019. In line with the long-term structural change in the labour market and the announced plant closures by major car manufacturers, employment in Manufacturing is projected to decline by 2.9% over this period.
Industry Groups in Report
- Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
- Information, Media and Telecommunications
- Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
- Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
- Administrative and Support Services
- Accommodation and Food Services
- Transport, Postal and Warehouse
- Health Care and Social Assistance
- Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
- Public Administration and Safety
- Financial and Insurance Services
- Arts and Recreation Services
- Education and Training
- Wholesale Trade
- Other Services
- Retail Trade
Areas of Growth
At the more detailed sector level, Australia’s largest employing industry sector – Cafés, Restaurants and Takeaway Food Services – is projected to make the largest contribution to growth over the five years to November 2019 (up by 16.9%). The top 20 projected growth sectors generally reflect the projections at the broader industry level, with sectors in Health Care and Social Assistance and Education and Training particularly prevalent. Against the backdrop of the implementation of the National Disability Insurance Scheme, Australia’s ageing population and increased demand for childcare and home-based care services, large increases in employment are projected for Hospitals (up by 15.2%), Residential Care Services (21.6 %) and Child Care Services (27.7%). Supported by above-average growth in the school-aged population and continuing growth in part-time workers in the sector and non-teaching staff, strong growth is projected in School Education (up by 12.3%), Adult, Community and Other Education (25.8 %) and Tertiary Education (15.6%). Reflecting the large contribution to employment growth projected for the Construction industry, strong growth in employment is projected for Building Installation Services (20.7%) and Building Completion Services (13.0%).
Areas of Decline
A number of industry sectors are projected to record a decline in employment over the five years to November 2019. The largest fall across all sectors is projected for Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Part Manufacturing (down by 47.5&), following the announced plant closures by major car manufacturers. Employment is projected to decline for a number of Mining related sectors, with the largest declines projected for Metal Ore Mining (13.4%), Coal Mining (17.1%), Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction (8.3%), Other Mining Support Services (25.2%) and Exploration (22.0%). Employment in Central Government Administration is also projected to record one of the largest falls over the period (4.6%).
In our next blog, we will look at regional trends and occupation growth areas.